Breaking news! Nonfarm payroll numbers are not so bad – +139,0001. But hiring numbers are big-time bad at +37,0002. Well OK. I don’t know what to do with that.
I also don’t know what to do with this statement from the first article: “Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.”
Great! So, we’re a “good distance” from recession, but are very nervous. We’ve really morphed into a feelings economy haven’t we? Let’s blame Gen Z. They are easy scapegoats. But it’s all sentiment; never mind the numbers. If we’re all feeling good about something it can go to the moon, and way beyond the oxygenated levels of where it should be valuated (see Palantir stock’s meteoric rise from $6 to $124.90 as of the writing of this). If there are bad feelings around Tesla, for example, the stock can drop 15% overnight as it did yesterday when Trump and Elon’s bromance came to a screeching EV halt. Sensational headlines carry the day and the computer algorithms have been set by the big Wall Street firms to try to capitalize on that.
It’s all emotion and it’s another reason to put someone or a firm like WTA in between yourself and the buy or sell button. Without us, within 30 emotional seconds you can log into a retail trading account and hit sell and affect your future.
The key is to remember the underlying stats based on history. Over the last 100 years, the S&P 500 is up 70% of the time if you look at it from year to year. The odds are strong that the S&P index value will grow in any given year.
We’re always drawing football analogies here so how about this one? Betting on the S&P 500 to grow in any given year is like betting straight up without laying points that Clemson will beat North Carolina in football this Fall. Over the last 30 years going back to 1995, the Tigers are 12-5 against the Tar Heels, a 70.6% winning percentage3. The way the teams are recruiting right now a Clemson victory is a pretty safe bet with all those 4- and 5-star recruits, and I’m probably giving my Heels too much credit by including the Mack Brown 1.0 years. (But the Heels have Bill Belichick and his young girlfriend on the sidelines so look out)! The thought process here is that if you feel like you could bet on Clemson football to beat North Carolina straight up on October 4th, you should feel comfortable betting on the S&P 500 in any given year (if of course your risk tolerance, time horizon, goals and income needs allow it). It’s important to remember the odds based on history to inform our decisions, and no, I’m not encouraging you to bet on college football. But the decision to remain invested in the stock market over time is a winning one when you look at history.
Sorry about the long AI adventure last week. It seems it’s the only thing anyone’s talking about, other than Trump and Musk’s breakup. The dot I didn’t connect last week is how involved in AI are your portfolios? We keep hearing from clients that they want to be in the space. Well, if you have either of our two growth stock portfolios or either of our Equity ETF portfolios … congratulations! You are most definitely in that space.
I can give you some idea of just how much. In sifting through WTA’s Growth equity portfolio, 7 companies or 25% of the portfolio directly profit from AI in some capacity and are set up for success with heavy investments into the space. Another 7 are significant beneficiaries of the AI trend and have heavily incorporated it into their business models. So a full 50% of the portfolio of 28 stocks is at least strongly benefiting from AI if not profiting directly from it.
The Christian Values Growth equity portfolio numbers look almost identical: 6 companies in the portfolio profit directly from the AI trend, while 8 could be considered beneficiaries of the surge of investment into AI (and/or are investing themselves heavily). That is 50% as well of that portfolio.
The bottom line is we’re seeing the technology as being as transformational as our clients are and whether we all want to go there or not – most of us not – the big investment dollars are headed in that direction. If you invest with us, you stand to profit from the trend.
Call us and let’s talk about your goals and see how they line up with investment trends. We have the tools in place to see you prosper and we’d love to bend your ear for a few minutes if you’ll let us. If you listen to us, we’ll change your financial world …
Sincerely,
Scott Wright
The WTA Investment Committee
Sources:
1https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/06/jobs-report-may-2025.html
2https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/adp-jobs-report-may-2025-.html
3https://goheels.com/sports/football/opponent-history/clemson/38
