I have figured out how to end the wars abroad! The idea came to me like a lightning bolt striking a Carolina Cherry on the 9th at Augusta National. I’ve been thinking that I’m more excited than ever to watch The Masters this weekend, even without the head-scratching hijinks of Tiger Woods or the warmth of Phil Mickelson’s grin. I admit that the unending news cycle of the War in Iran, the deteriorating relationships between NATO countries and the US, and the crazed volatility of our stock market has me weary and seeking an alternative for my spare time – especially a peaceful one.
Here’s what I would do: imagine that the pro golfers from each nation playing in The Masters this weekend, along with the war-affected nations’ presidents, gather as their countries’ negotiators on the partially shaded green of Golden Bell, the 12th hole at Augusta1. They set up their padded white chairs in a semicircle, gazing across at the stone arch of The Hogan Bridge, and admiring its reflection in the quiet, tranquil waters of Rae’s Creek below. You hear the ice gently cracking in the sunlit glasses as caddies bring sweet and tart Arnold Palmers to the players and presidents. A cardinal alights on a branch close to the green, his beak working as he proudly grooms his sharp red plumage. Jim Nantz strolls to the podium in the middle of the green as the delicate Masters theme is played pianissimo on a grand piano by the back left bunker. All is calm. As the wind gusts and rustles the nearby pink azalea blossoms on the hill behind them, for just a moment in time everyone has stillness, peace and a present reminder of the unbelievable, cathartic, God-bestowed beauty and wondrous life of our world all around them – the most precious things to protect. The spell is woven. And the negotiations between the US and Iran, and NATO, Ukraine and Russia, begin …
“Hello, Friends …” Nantz says softly.
With my luck that’s right about the time that a jet black SUV careens through the delegation completely out of control, plowing deep dirty furrows across the green. Half of the vehicle misses the entry of Hogan Bridge, falling off the side in a shower of broken stone and slamming nose-first into Rae’s Creek. A disoriented Tiger Woods wades out into the creek dripping wet.
“Sorry I’m late. I’ve just been on the phone with the president.”
“I’ve been right here, Tiger,” Trump says. “Oh OK,” Tiger says sleepily and then curls up to sleep in the front bunker. (Neither Tiger Woods nor Donald Trump are clients of our firm, nor were they compensated for their appearances in this article… Mr. Woods could not be reached for comment. ~The Compliance Department)
There’s just something about an ice-cold Arnold Palmer on a warm day isn’t there? Who could be mad in such a place, with such an instrumental piece in the background? Who couldn’t find the best versions of themselves at such a hallowed place, designed by God (and Bobby Jones)? But nobody asked me to set up the peace talks, so I’ll just have to be content to turn off the news for a few days and become one with that soothing Masters vibe.
All dreaming aside we did see a ray of sunlight this week as President Trump backed off his threats of “Power Plant and Bridge Day” and called for a ceasefire from his Truth Social account. The price of oil dropped $18 a barrel to well below $100 a barrel on both West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude. The market ripped higher Wednesday on the faith that the worst was behind us. The Dow Jones vaulted 2.85%, good for 1,325.46 points higher2. This was the best day since April 9th, 2025, a year almost exactly to the day. A hilarious tweet from someone named Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivates) said, “Note to self: Buy stocks every April 7th.”
But for me it’s hard to see this conflict truly being over in Iran with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. Oil market watcher and CNBC anchor Brian Sullivan reported that they’re seeing no increase yet in tanker traffic in the strait. Not only that but he’s spoken with shipping and insurance executives that have said that they are currently not planning to take the risk of running the gauntlet. Underwater mines reportedly occupy the biggest opening of the strait in international waters, which Iran laid in hopes of steering oil tankers into Iranian waters between tiny Larak Island and bigger Qeshm Island in the north mouth of the strait where they can exact tolls. Paying $1 per barrel of oil or close to $2,000,000 for each tanker is an unacceptable outcome for most of the world. WTI oil prices are back up to $101 as of the writing of this. Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf has accused Israel of breaking the ceasefire, even though rockets were fired from Lebanon at Israel at 2:20 am after the ceasefire and fortunately were intercepted3. Israel, which was not brought into the discussions of ceasefire has continued to pummel Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, a difficult assignment as the Hezbollah fighters are using the highly questionable tactic of storing missile launchers in civilian housing in neighborhoods and firing them within minutes. The ties between Iran and Lebanon are strong, so strong that Iranian President Pezeshkian just threatened to terminate the ceasefire.
Things are happening fast as Trump’s leaning on last year’s playbook with the threat of applying a 50% tariff to any country supplying Iran with military weapons, something that China is rumored to have done with drones.
We cannot ignore the impact of interest rates. If you look closer, the market “bottomed” (at least temporarily) when Jerome Powell said in a Harvard University speech that rates were unlikely to go up at the present time4. The 10-year Treasury slid back to sub 4.3% and the market turned upwards.
So much is affected by the level of interest rates. I’m told by our own Jamie Yarbrough that real estate is not moving in the $550,000 to $1,000,000 price range. (Jamie is headed down to Augusta for Sunday’s Final Round this weekend. I’m very jealous and hope he brings us back Masters hats like he did last year). Upon further sleuthing on the Interwebs, Jamie’s right. The monthly payments on March’s median-priced home after putting down 10% is $117 higher at today’s mortgage rates than just 30 days ago.5 Home prices are dropping nationally and are now down 2.2% the same time last year to $415,450, which is the lowest since 2022. The number of homes for sale is up 8.1% since last March. 52% of listings were on the market for at least 60 days without going under contract as of February, the biggest percentage since 2019, and there are 630,000 more sellers than buyers, which is the biggest gap ever6. The inventory is not moving, unless your house is priced $1,000,000 or above in some prime markets – Greenville, of course, being one.
Our Investment Committee reviewed our All-Weather Portfolio this week and are pleased by what we’re seeing in the results of its diversification. As some positions fell, others, such as the commodity allocation, rose, so the portfolio stayed on track. We still have some cash, some “dry powder” in our growth portfolios and agreed we would continue to wait to deploy what remains unallocated for more of all-clear on the Iran conflict than what we have gotten so far with this very tenuous, almost-ceasefire. Perhaps by the time you read this we’ll have peace … or perhaps not. (These reflect our model portfolio positions and don’t reflect the performance of any specific clients – call us if you have any questions about how your accounts have performed. As usual, past performance is no guarantee of future results! ~The Compliance Department)
To all those on the world stage, and to the stock market generally, I’m holding up the “Quiet, please” sign today and hoping the volatility takes a break so we can all get back to enjoying the tradition unlike any other. Think of us as your financial caddies in this troubled market, standing alongside you in the rough to help you view your time horizon and pick the right club for the distance. Remember, if you listen to us, we’ll change your financial world …
Until next time, Friends,
Scott Wright
Portfolio Caddie
The Wealth Training Academy
(Marketing Disclaimer: Past performance is never a guarantee of future results. We offer a lot of services. Our planning, tax, and insurance strategies are designed to improve financial outcomes when implemented as recommended. We’re confident in these strategies, but results will vary based on individual circumstances. Investment results cannot be guaranteed. Unless otherwise indicated, no third party individuals mentioned in this article are clients of our firm, nor have they been compensated for appearing. This article is for educational purposes only – we do not recommend anyone buy or sell any security discussed here. Instead, we recommend readers call our office for personal advice about your circumstances! ~The Compliance Department.)
Sources:
1The Masters: Hole #12 Golden Bell
2Stock market news for April 8, 2026
3Cease-Fire Tested by Confusion Over Strait and Strikes on Lebanon – The New York Times
5Inventory Is Up, Prices Are Down—So Why Are Home Sales Muted?
