Market Mindset

Big Bucks, No Whammies: The Game of Chance vs. The Game of Wealth

April 9, 2025

“Today these 3 players are after big bucks but they’ll have to avoid the whammy … From Television City in Hollywood, it’s time to Press … Your … Luck!”

Welcome to the stock market 2025.

Many of you may recall watching the show in the 1980’s. Contestants answered 4 questions and earned spins. The stage would rotate to face the big board and then the contestants would say “All right Big Bucks, No Whammies.” Then they’d scream “Stop!”, hoping for Big Bucks (at the time $1,000 to $5,000) but occasionally hitting the whammy, a monkey-like creature with yellow bandit-looking clothes that would crash a biplane or ride a jackhammer across the screen and take the contestant’s account down to $0.

Host Peter Tomarken of the hit game show Press Your Luck would appreciate the symmetry of 2025 headlines to his show. What is the symmetry exactly? Random chance. What headline will we get today? Is it the one from yesterday about China retaliating with their own tariffs that broke the back of a huge bear market rally with the Dow erasing a 1,461 point gain and ending the day lower¹? Or will we get today’s breathtaking rocket ride of the Nasdaq screaming 12.4% higher in its largest one-day gain since 2001 on news that President Trump has paused some of the reciprocal tariffs²? It’s been pretty random and all based on sentiment and some kind of 5-dimensional game of Jenga where tariffs somehow control the fate of the world. There was no particular skill required to play Press Your Luck. It was all random chance, just like picking a day out of the hat to day trade and hoping for the best headline that happened to pop up on your computer screen. The day-to-day outcomes are uncontrollable. Year-to-year however, is another matter.

What you can control is the controllable. That’s self-evident. So, let’s treat it as such. Where your financial future is concerned it is all about Time in the Market, not Timing the Market. You have to have a game plan and know the purpose of your money. This is the long game. The game lasts your retirement-time horizon, not next week. The more your habits resemble that of a day trader, the closer you’ll be to playing Press Your Luck. There’s no logical reason to do so. Here at WTA, we don’t overreact to anything and we follow the plans we’ve set out for you.

It doesn’t mean we don’t take advantage of opportunities. On February 20^th, we put out our Market Report saying, “We’ve just sent someone up into the Crow’s Nest to look out for the lighthouse. So, hear us when we tell you that there’s a storm on the horizon and the rocks may be closer than you think …”

We also delivered our State of the Markets presentation on Thursday and spoke of the great buying opportunity in our Growth and Market-Based Income Buckets. We then put out our Market Report on Monday echoing the same great opportunities.

What we did not do over the past 60 days, was try to swing trade your retirement, because in this game of Press Your Luck, we could have easily been wrong. Strategies for the long-term work when you give them the time it takes to succeed in our Growth bucket. Strategies for the next week are nothing more than a prayer (that doesn’t mean you don’t say them!)

The message is this: don’t get caught up in each headline, or in each Big Bucks day or in each Whammy day. The emotions that come with both are counter-productive to your long-term success as an investor.

You have us here as a resource. Whenever you’re concerned about your accounts, the state of the market, or your plans for the future, please give us a call so we can make the moves we need to make ahead of time. And remember … if you listen to us, we’ll change your financial world.

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