Greenville, South Carolina is the most idyllic city in America. It has all the ingredients necessary for a young family to fulfill their American dreams and put their children in position to fulfill their own dreams. This thought came to me while walking with my wife and kids around the concourse at Fluor Field last week for the 10th Annual Advanced Manufacturing & Engineering Night hosted by the Greenville Drive1. All around us was evidence of prosperity and the American Dream in action as we ate hot dogs (cheeseburger for me) and took in America’s favorite pastime.
We passed booths with manipulative robotic arms where the kids could win prizes for moving an object from one place to another. There were VR experiences for the kids to walk in a new world within the world they knew. But the Fantastic Four was all there. Michelin was there. Fluor, obviously, was there at Fluor Field. GE Vernova was there; BMW had remote control cars the kids loved. There were many up-and-coming companies as well, actively reaching out to put the seeds of discovery and early recruitment in the minds of the kids who, let’s be honest, would be lucky to remember any of the logos present. Greenville Tech was there and presented itself as the gateway to prosperity. It was all well thought out for kids of all ages to get just an ounce of engineering exposure and a splash of intrigue that might nudge them in a STEM direction one day. And they even brought the Dream to us while we played at the ballpark. For my Lego Master, 6-year-old engineer-to-be, this night was heaven. I remember thinking, where was this growing up in my poor old Eastern, NC hometown?
We are spoiled to be surrounded by such prosperity and opportunity. We are truly blessed. Then, of course, you turn on the national news … and quickly realize we live in two separate worlds – one national and one local. The national stock market and economic news this week all looked rather dour. Despite the incredible 300% surge from tariff revenue in July to a record $29.6 billion, the US Treasury still managed to post the second largest July deficit in history. Government spending shot northwards 9.7% to $630 billion which was the second highest since January, all while only taking in $338 billion. That’s roughly a $300 billion deficit for one month! If we annualize that, that’s, ugh … $3.6 trillion added to the deficit for one year.
There are signs the consumer is starting to fade a bit. It has shown up first at the places most likely to be cut from the household budget. Restaurants Cava and Chipotle both guided weak quarters-to-come and weaker same-store sales growth. Walmart is set to report on 8/21 and dubious reports from them in the past have been canaries in the coal mine. Credit card delinquency of 90+ days rose to 12.3% in the second quarter, good for the highest peak of household debt failure since 20112. 5% of auto loans are seriously delinquent which is just shy of the record in 2010, so 5% of cars may be headed back to the lot. Serious student loan delinquencies jumped 9.4% in the last 6 months to 10.2%, the highest since 2020. I guess those students may be repossessed by their parents, which the kids may welcome since the unemployment rate for graduates age 20 to 24 is 8.1%, matching levels from the infamous 2008. July PPI inflation this morning leapt to 3.3%, well above expectations of 2.5%. This is based on the prices manufacturers pay that in a few months will be passed on to consumers, so it is viewed as something of a harbinger. All of this is while the S&P 500 just hit, from a price-to-sales standpoint, it’s highest value in history3. But you know, tech stocks still look good!
So, we are of two distinct minds. We are wallowing in debt, both governmentally, and as consumers, but doggone, Greenville sure looks good, doesn’t it? As long as we can still afford the housing? Woodruff Road remains Woodruff Road. And we’ve got the Fantastic Four in Greenville of GE Vernova, Michelin, Fluor and BMW.
As our beloved city grows, so does our team. We’ve got our own Fantastic Four that we’ve just added here at WTA, as we grow in scope, expertise and capacity. Let me introduce them to you:
Many of you have met Jamie Yarbrough at our June event at Stella’s. I was reviewing portfolios with him yesterday afternoon, and I don’t know that I’ve ever met a more thoughtful, intellectually curious retirement planner who will do everything he can to help you navigate the array of risks in the present and the future. He has a deeper knowledge base than any planner I’ve met and is thorough. Jamie considers everything, and I mean everything, and will serve his clients and our Investment Committee well. After overhearing him several times on the phone with one of his sons, I can confidently say you won’t find a better father out there. And the BEST FATHERS make the BEST PLANNERS. (Mothers are also included as BEST, even MO’ BEST! The Wealth Training Academy is Equal Opportunity. All legal disclaimers you can think of please pretend we are listing here).
To our Marketing Department, we’ve added Shannon Forehand, a young marketing wizard and insightful communicator, who before I could even bend her ear about this Market Report, had already devised the much smarter and more creative presentation of this weekly column that you will soon see at the top of your screen. She considers the impact of every word and image and was already way ahead of where my thoughts had gotten in terms of putting our best foot forward for it. It was amazing to see that in just a couple of weeks, she had so quickly adapted to our culture and even began to lead it.
Jonathan Shinkle is a new Medicare and life insurance expert on our Insurance Team, who built a team of Medicare advisors in Virginia before he and his family relocated to Greenville. Jonathan is a kind, considerate, Christian man. He’s a great listener and has a way of putting you at ease. Talking about insurance means talking about your health issues, which is not the most comfortable topic for anyone. You’ll be comfortable talking with him though, so please do not hesitate to pick up the phone this Fall and call him, as well as Miriam, about your Medicare plan. There are huge changes coming to Medicare this Fall that may affect you in big ways, and while I can’t get into the details, come Open Enrollment season, you’re going to want to talk to him and Miriam.
The final member of our new Fantastic Four is our new EA, Jenn Snook, who is terrific addition to our Tax Team. She jumped two feet first into our system here and every time I look over at her desk, she’s already hard at work and laser focused. The thing I like most about Jenn is her laugh. On her first day at work Ed managed to spill his coffee all over her desk and her laugh echoed through the room. You can tell a lot about someone the way they laugh, and I tend to gravitate to people who don’t mind at all expressing their joy in front of others. Jenn’s good natured and patient, two exceptional qualities in the world of taxes and dealing with the IRS for you, and we’re happy to have her on board.
We’ll have most of our new Fantastic Four at our Halftime Report, so if you’d like to meet them and have not yet signed up, please let us know. Thank you for your continued trust in us as we grow in our collective expertise and capacity here at WTA. If there’s anything you need in the realm of Taxes, Investments, Insurance and Estate Planning, please give us a call. If you listen to us, we’ll change your financial world …
Sincerely,
Scott Wright
The WTA Investment Committee
Sources:
1https://www.milb.com/greenville/community/ame
2@KobeissiLetter
3@charliebilello
