It’s that time of the year that all husbands and boyfriends who wish to remain on the Love Train must deal with the fact that they’ve had their tushes planted firmly on a bench at Procrastination Station. Yes, I’m talking to you. You’ve waited until the very last minute, and Valentine’s Day is upon you. So, my good sirs, what do you do to show the lady of your life you’re still invested?
There’s that word … invested. Relationships require a commitment and that commitment extends to dollars – dollars that don’t extend as far as they used to.
Want to go out and pay for a real nice dinner on the town? According to CPI Data1 that will cost you 25% more than it did four years ago. Assuming you fellows have the culinary skills of one Ed Storer, you could opt to celebrate Valentine’s Day by donning the apron and cheffing up something special for your someone special.
But if you do fire up that grill, excuse me, convection oven (wink, wink), you might be surprised to find that the cost of a meal at home costs 23.2% more than it did in 2021. Thinking of turning that salad into a Cobb salad? That’s a real premium choice, as a dozen eggs are up no less than 238% over the last 4 years. I think I’ll stick with the Caesar.
You could get real crazy perhaps and hop a last minute flight to Anywhere, USA. That just costs another 43% than it did 4 years ago. Or, maybe you could drive her to a state hotspot near you? That could be a wrong turn though, because to operate that car properly insured will cost you 60.9% more than it did then.
Lord, have mercy! The options are looking pretty rich! She is sweet to you though isn’t she? At least some of the time? Maybe you go for the old standby of sweets for your sweet. It’s hard to go wrong with that, until you realize that cocoa is up more than all of them. In the summer of 2022, cocoa prices were $2,000 a ton (not suggesting you purchase that much for your lady love. It might send the wrong message)2. Now, those cocoa prices are right around $10,000 a ton. That’s a five-fold increase. Those chocolate kisses make for a real swanky gift this year. Just make sure you tell her that if that’s all you show up with on Valentine’s.
Inflation is in everything and is everywhere you look. It’s not going away. When trying to project the course of interest rates, we look to the PPI, the Producer Price Index. This index tracks the inputs of raw materials and goods producers pay to assemble their product. It’s a good guide of where prices may be 6 months from now. Unfortunately, this morning, January PPI rose unexpectedly to 3.5%3, well above the street expectations of 3.2%. In fact, upon further review, 9 out of the last 13 PPI reports have been revised higher. That doesn’t bode well for some bonds out there, which is why we opted to run a Tactically Managed Fixed Income Portfolio. We react to this news every week at our Investment Committee meetings. Just know that we’re constantly reviewing the interest rate landscape, so hear us if we suggest a different investing strategy for you.
So on this Valentine’s Day, know that if you listen to us, we’ll change your financial (and perhaps romantic) world.
Sources:
1@CharlieBillello
3@TheKobeissiLetter
