“You’re not very intimidating, you know?” Andre Agassi calls out through his headset mic to Roger Federer as Roger bounces the ball before his serve1. “You’re disarming yourself! You’re very Swiss, I don’t know what it is.” The crowd watching the doubles exhibition match laughs. Some have their mouths gaping open in shock. Roger coolly grins and replies “I know … very neutral … very relaxed.” What follows is an absolutely epic point between Andre and Rafa Nadal versus Federer and Pete Sampras that Roger ends with a terrific cross-court drop shot at an impossible angle right in front of Andre. All Andre can do is smile.
Watching Jerome Powell deliver remarks at the Jackson Hole Press Conference for the Fed … he just gives off the same vibes as Federer – not very intimidating. Very neutral. Very relaxed. Maybe that’s why Trump finds him such an easy target. Powell’s perfectly in his element and much like Sean Connery, just comfortable in his own skin. And despite being one of the best at what he does in the world, and not being unlikable exactly, finds himself in a situation where everyone seems to be rooting against him – just as they did against Federer, whether he was sparring with Agassi, Rafa, or either of the Andy’s, Roddick or Murray. Of course, with the big popular vote winner President Trump sparing no insult against him, it’s no wonder people are aggravated at his performance and demeanor (including myself at times).
So today Jerome “Too Late” Powell finally, at long, long last, crafted the unnecessarily wordy sentence: “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance2,” and delivered the rest of his policy remarks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that forecast an interest rate cut in September. Stock market investors, perhaps after years of coming to think that believing in an interest rate cut was like believing in the Easter Bunny, seemed completely shocked when the interest rate cut Easter basket was delivered at their door this morning.
The S&P 500 shot upwards 1.65% as of the writing of this. The Dow Jones up 902 points or 2.02%. The Nasdaq grew 2.04% and the Russell 2000 (small cap) vaulted 3.84%. It’s a good thing we’ve got that small cap ETF in our Growth ETF portfolio.
Don’t say we didn’t tell you so. Yesterday we did, in fact, at our Halftime Report where we talked about the percentage chance of a rate cut being very high at 84%, and how that was bullish for the stock market.
Thank you very much to all our attendees, both in person and online, for taking the time out of your schedules to come visit with us and learn about the market and The One Big Beautiful Bill. We all really enjoyed speaking with you before and after the presentations. It was a great turnout and I’m sure that, based on early feedback, it’s something we’ll likely do again in the future.
We’ve had lots of requests for meetings and we’re happy to accommodate you all. There were, as ever, positive signs for the market, as well as some warnings, like valuation. So, we’re in a vigilant mode and a state of “guarded stability.” We want to keep the dialogue going with you in terms of your allocations and how they jibe or don’t jibe with your goals, lifestyles, time horizons and dreams for the future of yourselves and your families. We want to make sure you are taking advantage of the new tax paradigm. It was especially great that many of you brought with you family or future family members last night. We got to meet an 18-year-old grandson, who, if he can make more Roth IRA contributions over the next few years, will likely have more money than all of us when he’s old and gray. We got to meet a fiancée with a great smile, who is already asking all the right tax and investment questions. We got to welcome new clients to our presentation for the first time. We got to introduce new members of our team to you. It was all the most fun and exciting part of our job. So, thank you all for your engagement yesterday.
Things are happening fast on a national scale and there are many things affected through the various lenses of taxes, investment, insurance and estate planning. Just like in tennis where you must change your strategy depending on whether your opponent has a blinding, precise return- of-serve like Agassi, or is a master at the serve-and-volley like Federer, we must change strategies for new tax rules and investment conditions. So many different topics were hit on in conversations last night and we expect that to continue. Help us make sure that for each and every one of you reading this, we’ve addressed those areas for you, including any changes in your lives that would necessitate updates. Call us. Tell us where those areas of concern are for you. Help us help you. If you listen to us, we’ll change your financial world …
Sincerely,
Scott Wright
The WTA Investment Committee
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